Duffy Grain, Inc.
P.O. Box 250
Columbus, WI 53925
N3867 Baden St.
Columbus, WI 53925
6107 Twin Lane Rd.
Marshall, WI 53559
DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/26 11:57
Corn, Beans Higher at Midday
Midday grain trade is mostly lower in quiet action.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 230 points higher. The
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 8 points higher.
Energies are firmer, with crude 1.00 higher moving above $60 a barrel.
Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold off 8.00.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from the
May-nearby $3.80 area that we have tested the last three sessions. The market
is starting to move into pre-report squaring trade with the big annual March
Planting Intentions report on Friday along with the March 1 stocks. The average
trade guess is for the 2019 planting intentions to be at 91.184 million acres
versus 89.129 last year; the range of expectations is 90-92.2 million. The
March 1 corn stocks are expected to be at 8.336 billion bushels versus 8.892
one year ago. The Midwest weather issues are hindering demand and movement with
short term moisture issues to continue with a few wet spring outlooks for the
corn belt. South America crop progress should remain uneventful for now.
Ethanol margins have improved with production losses due to flooding, and the
start of spring-driving season with ethanol futures edging slightly lower to
start the week with tomorrow's weekly report expected to reflect production
losses. Corn basis will be mixed depending greatly on local conditions. The
slow start to fieldwork will continue to be watched in the near term with
fertilizer logistics likely to be a major issue with water moving into the
Mississippi. Trade will be watched for further China announcements are made
with nothing the last two days. On the May chart support is the 20-day at $3.71
1/2 with resistance at the 100-day at $3.83 3/8 then the 200-day at $3.85.
Soybean trade is 4 to 6 cents lower at midday with range-bound action
continuing within the same dime we've traded the last week with little fresh
news. Meal is $2 to $3 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower. The soybean
2019 planting intentions are expected to be at 86.2 million acres down from
89.196 a year ago. The March 1 stocks are expected to be a record 2.687 billion
bushels versus 2.109 one year ago. South America weather should maintain the
recent pattern in the coming days with Brazil harvest moving along and normal
progress in Argentina with the peak of harvest approaching, and SA beans at a
solid discount to US origin seasonally. Crush margins remain strong to support
domestic usage, with basis mostly flat. On the May chart support is the $9.05
10-day and 20-day which we are just below at midday with the $8.99 level as the
next level of support, then the 50-day and 100-day at $9.17 the next round up
if we can find late buying.
Wheat trade is 1 cents lower to 4 cents higher with Chicago wheat trade
leading again during the day session. Looking to Friday, the trade is looking
for spring wheat acreage to be at 13.369 million acres versus 13.2 one year
ago; the range of expectations is 12.6 to 13.9 million acres. The March 1 wheat
stocks are expected to be at 1.543 billion bushels versus 1.495 billion one
year ago. In the bigger picture the trade appears to still be focused on easing
the oversold conditions with the large fund short in place. The outlook for
spring wheat planting will remain challenging. Export news has been quieter
lately with most of the focus on high protein wheat and trade focused on the
Egyptian tender today. Warm plains weather will pull the crop out of dormancy
with generally good conditions so far, and plenty of moisture and more on tap
this week along with warmer weather before another cold snap. Wheat basis
varies widely on product and location. On the May Kansas City chart support is
the 10-day at $4.42 with the 20-day at $4.40 below that, with the upper
Bollinger band the next round up at $4.56.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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